But Can He Win?

Answer is: YES. In fact, in head to head polls with the leading Republican candidates, Obama usually does better than Clinton.

Why? Because the Republican party is pretty fractured right now, and don't have a candidate they are crazy about, but they do have one thing that unites them: Clinton hate. Obama, on the other hand, has a proven ability to reach across party lines and draw in Independents and some Republicans. Check the Chicago Tribune endorsement I linked to.

That said (and because he'd also compete for those Independent votes), McCain is the one they both would have trouble beating. In a recent poll, Obama would tie McCain, Clinton would lose, just barely (within the margin of error). Against almost every other Republican candidate, they would both win, usually with Obama winning by a greater margin. That's because we've had 8 dangerously incompetent years of Bush, and people want a change - so its the Democrats to lose (which theyve proven good at doing)

Coming later:
Some republican testimony to that fact (several conservatives have pronounced themselves to being caught up and "moved" by obama.