Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Here We Go Round & Round

After all this hype, this:
(from Congressional Quarterly, crunching the numbers):

How many delegates might each candidate win in Pennsylvania, which is the most populous of the states and territories that have yet to vote?

...a CQ Politics analysis of the political circumstances in Pennsylvania’s congressional districts, detailed below, projects an edge to Clinton — but by just 53 district-level delegates to 50 for Obama under the Democratic Party’s proportional distribution rules.

These numbers suggest that Clinton, even with a victory in Pennsylvania, would make only a small incremental gain against Obama’s overall lead in the delegate race.
Yup that's right: a net of 3 delegates for Clinton from Pennsylvania, that's it.Trimming Obama's lead by....barely nothing (especially when we hit North Carolina the next week).

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